Den indvirkning den indeværende subprime lånekrise har oven på global afsætningsmarked.

Kære Fellow-investor.

“Hvorfor er det, at denne subprime lån krise har sådan en rislende effekt på mange sektorer af økonomien?”

“Hvorfor er selv virksomheder uden for USA også påvirket af den amerikanske realkredit krise?”

I de sidste 7 dage modtog jeg masser af e-mails fra mine abonnenter spørger mig spørgsmål som disse, og jeg vil gerne benytte lejligheden til at forklare, hvad dette boliger, realkreditlån, subprime lån, kredit krise-hvad du ønsker at kalde det-og den nuværende situation handler om .

Mellem 2002 og 2004 lå renten i USA så lavt som aldrig før. I det mindste så vidt jeg kan huske. Jeg er ikke så gammel endnu! Effekten af sådanne lave renter var en Real-Estate Boom i USA ofte finansieret med såkaldte subprime lån. Disse lån gives til låntagere, der ikke kvalificerer sig til de bedste markedsrenter på grund af deres mangelfulde kredit historie.

Subprime udlån omfatter en bred vifte af kreditinstrumenter, herunder subprime realkreditlån, subprime bil lån, og subprime kreditkort, blandt andre. Udtrykket “subprime” refererer til låntagers kreditstatus (er mindre end ideel), ikke renten på selve lånet.

Men bankerne ikke bekymre sig for meget om dette, fordi renten var lav og samtidig, Real-Estate priserne var stigende kontinuerligt i 90 ‘ er.

Så tilbage i 2002/2004, nogen, der kunne tælle til 3 fik et lån. Mange mennesker i Amerika var pludselig i stand til at give dyre enlige familie huse og anden form for fast ejendom, at de ikke kunne før.

Men i 2006 den amerikanske rente var tredoblet og nu, især subprime låntagere ikke kunne betale deres månedlige rater længere. Så flere og flere af disse subprime lån begyndte at smuldre.

Men det er ikke alt. Nogle banker og andre finansielle institutioner konverterede millioner af disse subprime lån til obligationer. Disse blev derefter solgt for milliarder af dollars til banker, forsikringsselskaber og gensidige fonde, der antog, at dette er en sikker investering, fordi obligationer normalt er. Det er derfor, de også betragtes som en sikker havn i stormfulde tider.

Og ikke kun var disse obligationer sælges til amerikanske institutioner, men internationale dem også. Du ser, i en nøddeskal, alle investerer overalt. Amerika investerer i Europa, og Europa investerer i Amerika, osv., etc.!

Så du kan forestille dig, hvad der skete, da disse lån begyndte at smuldre og praksis med at omdanne dem til obligationer Backfired. Det hele skyllede over grænsen til Amerika i andre lande. Den tyske industri bank IKB investeret 13.000.000.000 dollars i disse obligationer og nu er de ser på en $5.000.000.000 tab.

I årevis denne subprime spil viste sig alle rigtige og gigantiske mængder af kontanter blev investeret i Real-ejendom i Florida, Delaware eller Texas af amerikanske og internationale aktiemarkeder. Ingen troede, at så mange låntagere ville gå brød på samme tid.

Ifølge den amerikanske Federal Reserve, lån på op til 100.000.000.000 dollars kunne hoppe. Samtidig synes dette blot at være en dråbe i havet i betragtning af den virkning, det kunne have på de internationale kapitalmarkeder.

Disse dårlige lån kunne være den største enkeltstående risiko for den globale økonomi. I fortiden, mange i Amerika brugte deres penge Stout-helhjertet således, stimulere og cranking op i økonomien. Deres huse blev mere og mere værd, og bankerne bogstaveligt talt kastede lån til kunder med lave renter.

Dette kunne alle give bagslag nu lægge en masse pres på den amerikanske økonomi, fordi de penge, der blev brugt så generøst er nu holdes tilbage. Også fordi låntagere, der nu op til deres ører i finansielle problemer kan ikke brugt mere penge, fordi der simpelthen er ingen tilbage at bruge. Dette tager til gengæld en masse likviditet ud af markederne.

Også virksomheder og selskaber, der ikke har noget at gøre med den nuværende Real-Estate uro er trukket ind i subprime krise. Hvis de ønsker ny kapital fra bankerne, skal de betale højere rentesatser som en ekstra præmie for risiko. Eller, at tage tingene i ekstremer, vil de ikke få et lån på alle gør det vanskeligt for virksomheder at vokse, især hvis en virksomhed ønsker at fusionere med en anden, som ofte koster milliarder af dollars. Dette alle falder ud nu således, at reducere indtjening og profit Outlooks.

Og der er en anden, lige så dårlig effekt på alle virksomheder. Uanset om de er knyttet til en fast ejendom eller ej. Hedge fonde købte disse konverterede realkreditobligationer af de millioner og meget ofte ved hjælp af marginer, dvs købe på lånte penge. Og nu sidder de på en enorm bunke af tab og gæld. For at tilbagebetale den gæld, de har til at sælge aktier, råvarer og andre egenkapital. Og det skubber naturligvis priserne ned. Også aktiekurser. Det er som en kædereaktion.

Og det er dybest set grunden til, at markederne rundt om i verden er i sådanne kaos lige nu.

Tilbage på handels gulvet, for bullish handel det bedste håb for fortsat lang handel er i turnarounds og Bounce backs. Snarere end at holde vejret og åbne nye lange handler hvorfor ikke tage den bearish Pat og handel sætter eller stå på Sidelinjerne for en tid?

Er min handel bias stadig bullish? På kort sigt nej. I mellem-og lang sigt, ja. Så jeg er bestemt ikke åbne nogen nye lange handler lige nu. Men i fremtiden vil vi se på mange lange handelsmuligheder. Det er den gode side af det hele!

Din i succesfuld handel,

Ricky Schmidt lån nå
 

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